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Trend variations are wavelike movements that are shorter than a year.

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The goal of a good forecasting technique is to minimize the deviation between actual demand and the forecast.

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Random variations in a Time Series component are due to:


A) Population growth
B) Unpredictable events
C) Using a large value for the exponential smoothing constant
D) Inaccurate responses of the expert participants

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What is considered an acceptable range for a tracking signal?


A) ±1
B) ±2
C) ±3
D) ±10

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A positive error implies that a forecast was?


A) Too low
B) Too high
C) Neither too high or too low
D) The sign of an error gives no information as to the direction of the error

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Minimizing the negative impacts of the bullwhip effect on supply chains is one of the goals of an effective CPFR system.

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The Delphi forecasting approach is applicable for high-risk technology forecasting; large, expensive projects; or major new product introductions

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The four components of time series data are: trend variations, cyclical variations, seasonal variations, and random variations.Briefly describe each type of variation.

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a.Trend variations:Trend variations can ...

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The smoothing constant for exponential smoothing must be?


A) Positive
B) Negative
C) Between 0 and 1
D) Greater than 1

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The impact of poor communication and inaccurate forecasts resonates along the supply chain and results in the:


A) Bullwhip effect
B) Delphi method
C) CPFR effect
D) Mean deviation

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Quantitative forecasts use mathematical techniques that are based on:


A) Expert opinions
B) Surveys
C) Historical data
D) Sales force knowledge of the market

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Based on the information in the data set below, what is the mean squared error (accurate to 1 decimal) ? Based on the information in the data set below, what is the mean squared error (accurate to 1 decimal) ?   A)  8.0 B)  10.0 C)  1.00 D)  0.8


A) 8.0
B) 10.0
C) 1.00
D) 0.8

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Your company is conducting forecasting that revolves around population growth in large cities.This type of forecasting can be referred to as what component of a time series?


A) Cyclical Variations
B) Trend Variations
C) Seasonal Variations
D) Random Variations

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It is possible to expect 100 percent forecast accuracy most of the time.

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Cyclical variations are longer than a year and can be influenced by:


A) Events such as natural disasters
B) Imbalances in supply and demand
C) Political factors
D) Population growth

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Which one of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting?


A) Sales force composite
B) Consumer survey
C) Jury of executive opinion
D) Simple moving average

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Which of the following is a major cultural issue and big hurdle for widespread implementation of CPFR?


A) There is no software available to use
B) Global economic changes
C) Trust
D) All of the above

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List and Explain two types of qualitative forecasting methods.

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a.Jury of Executive Opinion:This type of...

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Regression analysis is commonly used in the cause-and-effect forecasting model.

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